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Hi Steve,
Undisputably (unless one is a creationist!) the world changes: continents move, climate changes. The problem at the moment is the rate of change, far greater than at any time in recorded history and possibly than at any time in prehistory that can be accurately measured (although I'm sure the asteroid that (probably) hit the earth at the end of the Mesozoic brought about some pretty rapid change!); extinctions are occurring at a greater rate than ever before, which looks like accelerating.
I think it is very easy for people to be sceptical, because it supports a do-nothing approach, stops one from having to think about the consequences, both for the individual and for society; it is what the majority of the world's population, especially in the western world, would like to hear. It easy to be sceptical because a sceptic will always be right in arguing that it is all in the future, depends on computer models, and requires the interpretation of data that most of us do not have the training or knowledge to understand. Do I fully understand the science? No, at least not more than 10% of it fully. But I can read and listen to the arguments from both sides, and until someone makes a cogent case for global climate change NOT being man made, I would rather trust science, rather than the vested commercial and political interests of the sceptic agenda. I don't really understand the Big Bang, or how black holes work; I haven't seen evolution happen before my own eyes - but I trust the scientists who do to be performing robust science so I don't end up thinking I was created by an omnipotent being from his rib, or whatever.
That's the thing about science rather than belief: you create a workable theory but should never be afraid to throw it away if new evidence comes to light. I am far more sceptical about the reasons for scepticism - there are far more vested interests in the world who would love nothing more than for it to taken to be a myth than there are in the climate change pro-camp, although of course there will always be those who are interested in making career capital out of it: that's human nature unfortunately.
I just can't see what we lose even if we do act now and find out either it isn't as bad as all that - i.e. the science is, ultimately, flawed - or that there was nothing we could do about it because it was due to sun spots on Alpha Centauri or something, feng shui or bad karma. What is wrong with moving to a more sustainable way of life, finding alternatives to fossil fuels, consuming less power and resources? Yes it will cost us, personally and economically, in the short term but will the world end up being a worse place because of it? No, and we might just have ensured our species and the environment in general can live alongside each other far better than we've managed since the Industrial Revolution.
I don't expect I've convinced you but I hope that what I've written above makes some kind of sense. I would love for it not to be true: for my children to grow up in a world where, whatever else is in store for them, the consequences of global warming won't be something they have to worry about. But from where we stand at the moment, the lack of action and political will worries me.
Mike
_________________ Please visit the Hantsmoths website at http://www.hantsmoths.org.uk
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